Somebody STOP the downward slide of oil prices!

Lately, I have been thinking about what will happen if oil prices continue their downward spiral.  I live in Abu Dhabi, a heavily oil-dependent region of the United Arab Emirates.  According to the Emirate’s official source of statistics, oil single-handedly dominates 55 percent of Abu Dhabi’s GDP, a sizeable chunk I would say. (Source: SCAD, 2012). As a resident of this glitzy place, and a well-remunerated employee of the public sector, the plunging oil prices pose a palpable threat to me – yes, to my person!

Does this oil crisis mean an end for expats in Abu Dhabi? The local press will have you believe that it doesn’t – at least not yet. Economists at the Department of Economic Development are saying that the economy is impervious; that there is plenty of financial padding; that the government’s priority investments and projects will continue without a dent; and that the Emirate’s big public sector will remain as is. I can’t help but expect the exact opposite – especially with regards to the last point.

Saudi Arabia is determined to dominate the oil market even if it means bringing the oil price down to $40, $30 or even $20 per barrel (See article: Falling Oil Prices: This time around, it will be different http://www.irishtimes.com/business/energy-and-resources/falling-oil-prices-this-time-around-it-will-be-different-1.2051157).  This is scary, and it can only mean one thing – in Abu Dhabi, there will be government cutbacks on admin spending, and salaries, AND an additional threat of income taxes. What was so attractive about this region will no longer be. The dream of the Middle East, a life of riches and beauty, will come to an abrupt end for many expatriates!

Whatever Saudi’s motivation behind the manipulation of the market, be it the dominance of the oil market, or geopolitical interests of its western allies, please STOP the downward slide of oil prices!

A Disaster Waiting to Happen – The Story of the Subprime Mortgage Crisis

The Big Short, by Michael Lewis, gives a really neat and eye-opening account of the disaster of the subprime mortgage-lending industry, and how it caused the financial crisis of 2008. I knew little about the workings of Wall Street before reading this book except that it is the pulse of the financial world, where a lot of money can be made through the trading of stock and managing of other people's money. But there is so much more to it. Before giving a summary of the events that led up to the crisis, here are five interesting things to start with.

1. Bond markets are a lot bigger, riskier and dirtier than stock markets. In the subprime mortgage bond market, there was a lot more room to make money by bending the rules of finance, and creating ‘innovative’ – or deceptive – new financial products to delude the investor. This was possible because of the high degree of opacity present in the bond market.

2. The bond market people on Wall Street were out to screw not only the ordinary homeowners and investors, but also other firms on Wall Street and intermediary institutes. 

3. The rating agencies, i.e. S&P and Moody’s, who employ rejects from investment banks and hedge funds, were easily influenced by big Wall Street firms to give a favorable rating to their piece-of-crap subprime mortgage bonds and derivatives.

4. Very few people were smart enough to recognize the disaster that was brewing in the subprime mortgage market between early 2000s to 2007, and fewer were brave enough to bet against it (by some sources, this number was less than 20 people). Most of the people on Wall Street, including those who played a part in creating the market, didn’t fully understand it!

5. You could make money – A LOT of money – on Wall Street without having to make the right decisions. The incentives on Wall Street were all wrong. 

So here is how it all began …

In early 2000s, home mortgage lenders were making home loans to borrowers who could not afford to pay them back. Their primary aim was to bulk up their balance sheets, and so very little attention was paid to the credit worthiness of the borrowers. The home loans were then sold by these subprime mortgage lenders to Wall Street firms like Goldman Sachs, Merrill Lynch, Lehman Brothers, Morgan Stanley, and the like who would subsequently securitize them into bonds and pass them on the investor.  So essentially, neither the originator of the mortgage (i.e. the mortgage lenders), nor the Wall Street firms were exposed to the risk, since they were passing it on to the investor. Soon, many billions of dollars were made out in loans to homeowners, and over a trillion dollars’ worth of bonds were trading on the market, all backed by home mortgages which were going to crash sooner or later. This was now a HUGE market, spiraling out of control and if you were smart, you would bet against it.

What happened in between…

So that the defaults wouldn’t start right off the back, the homeowners were given a ‘teaser-rate’ period of two years, where they paid an interest payment they could afford. After the end of the ‘teaser’ period, the interest rate sky-rocketed and would be too high for the homeowners to honour. By 2007, homeowners across the country began to default on their mortgage payments.

Wall Street did well to cover this! While defaults were slowly, but surely, on the rise, the value of the mortgage-backed bonds kept rising. This was because the rating agencies, influenced by the Wall Street bond market giants, were blessing these crappy bonds with investment grade ratings (i.e. triple A, double A), when in fact, these bonds were made up of some of the worst loans! This kept these bonds attractive to investors.

But….how was anyone going to make money from this?

You could make money by betting against the subprime market.The few analysts who were studying the subprime mortgage crisis very closely, and watching in dismay, included hedge funds FrontPoint Partners, Michael Burry, Cornwall Capital – and they were all betting against the market. 

Because there was no direct and easy way to short a bond, (as there is with a stock) they bet against the stock of all firms involved in the messy business of subprime mortgage lending, including the loan originators, intermediaries and investors. This is until a more direct way to bet against the market was invented by Michael Burry in the form of the Credit Default Swap.  

A Credit Default Swap was essentially like insurance against a bond becoming worthless (you could buy a CDS on a bundle of bonds). The owner of a CDS on a pack of subprime mortgage bonds would be paid the full value of the bonds if the homeowners started defaulting on their payments.  In the book, this situation is likened to buying fire insurance on a house that was only waiting to go up in flames.

Soon firms like Goldman Sachs were selling cheap CDS (and passing this risk on to bigger insurance firms like AIG FP). From their point of view, a CDS was a quick and easy source of money for them because they thought there was no way the bonds were going to crash – at least not anytime soon – or at least, not all at once! The system was big enough to prevent a crash like that – or so they thought. 

Crash boom bang!

When in 2007, the teaser rate period for most home mortgages came to an end, the default rates sky rocketed. Bond prices started to fall rapidly. Wall Street firms who held a long position on the subprime mortgage market (surprisingly!), were now scrambling to get on the other side of the bet by buying up as many CDSs as possible, and at extremely high prices. This is how the few hedge funds, including FrontPoint, Mike Burry's Scion, Cornwall Capital, cashed in their CDSs and made millions within days!

By fall of 2008, all the major Wall Street firms involved in the market were caving. Lehman Brothers filed for bankruptcy, and Merrill Lynch announced a USD. 55B loss on subprime mortgage bonds. There was a big run on banks all over the world, with stock indices going in a free fall. 

In September 2008, the Federal Reserve announced a USD. 85B loan to AIG to pay off its insurance debt to Wall Street’s Goldman Sachs and other firms. This was followed by the USD. 700B TARP program to buy up the subprime backed assets from Wall Street firm, but, mysteriously, was only directed at a select few Wall Street banks.

Some who played the market cleverly, and were rewarded for it (i.e. hedge funds likeFrontPoint, Scion, Cornwall). Others, in select few Wall Street firms responsible for the mess, left unscathed and richer (i.e. Goldman Sachs, Citigroup, etc).  While the innocent investors and homeowners, bore the brunt of the crash (i.e. homeowners, foreign investors, and others who had taken a long position on the market).

The capi-communist State of China is more capitalist than you would think

This post is based on the book, “Maonomics: Why Chinese communists make better capitalists then we do” by the economist, and author Loretta Napoleoni.

The book is about cutting through the perceptions the West holds about the Chinese way of life and the economy, and revealing the realities.  After reading this book, I have become a bigger fan of the Chinese work ethic, economic management and their remarkable journey to date.

Politics

• The political apparatus of China is more democratic than the West would have us believe. In China, towns, districts and villages are actively engaging in dialogue with their administrators and exercising their right of choice in a continuous manner, rather than once every 4-5 years during election. Politics is part of daily life there, and people interact regularly on important matters that affect them – their voices are heard.
• The membership of China’s Communist Party (CCP) is open to the common man, including business owners, and an increasing number of private business owners are joining the Party, which shows China’s lack of aversion to private sector and ownership.
• Rising the ranks within CCP is based on a very strict system of meritocracy. It is not an exclusive or elitist party. Anyone can stand for office if they are a strong candidate, but they will only rise to the top ranks if they are a competent politician and administrator. 
• In China, no one who has been sentenced, who has a pending prosecution, or who has been investigated by the judicial authorities can hold public office, unlike in many Western countries.

While there may be episodes of violent clashes on the streets of China, these uprisings do not mean that the Chinese have a desire to replicate the Western model of economy or politics in China. The nature and dynamics of the Chinese social, cultural and economic set up do not sit well with a western model of democracy. China’s popular communism is working far better than any system of elite democracy would.   

Economy

• The economic transformation of China has been guided by the State, which has a social vision for the long-term, as opposed to the market in the West, which is often corrupt and lacking a vision for the future.
• China’s journey to capitalism began in Deng Xiaoping’s time when he prepared China to make the great leap by introducing a series of economic reforms and growth incentives, such as:
  

1. Private property, where now farmers were allowed to sell part of their crop for personal income
2. Labour mobility allowed farmers to move from one village to another to sell their crop, and work in the special economic zones (SEZ)
3. Open Door Policy for foreign investors to invest in China’s SEZs. This, by far, was the single most powerful and transformative measure implemented by Deng Xiaoping, as it catapulted China out of poverty an into a state on a journey to economic freedom.
   

• Chinese labour’s cost, but more importantly, their work ethic and quality of work made China the main destination for “global labour arbitrage”, where international corporations moved their production arms to take advantage of the cheap labour. While other countries, such as Laos, and Vietnam were also attracting foreign investors, the assembly lines remained in China (because the half-finished products would go back to China for reassembling and final production).
• The engine of growth in China, and the rest of Asian economies, remains the real “productive” sector while in the West, the finance sector has been increasing in its share of GDP.  This is not great for the economy because of the way the financial sector works, which is to mainly to trade financial products and not really to help the real sector.
• Renewables Energy Belt: China is making great strides in renewables, and has ambitious targets for all kinds of renewable energy, incl. nuclear, solar, hydro, wind, etc.  The “Sun City” in Dezhou has helped solar energy to grow at 20-30 percent a year.

Recession

The Chinese stimulus package contained infrastructure spending of about 4B renminbi, and another 10B renminbi to banks to make “non-performing” loans, which do not generate interest but are used for economic development projects.  The Chinese stimulus package was more effective than the American one because instead of inflating the reserves of banks, the Government gave money to the people to spend on the economy.  

Other

• China is a State that engages in self-reflection and improvement.  Communist China learnt from the mistakes of Mao’s era, and corrected them in Deng Xiaoping’s.  For instance, Deng Xiaoping abolished the collective farm system, which was the corner stone of Maoism, and rented it out to foreigners; China put the Gang of Four on trial for corruption charges, which included Mao’s wife.
• In China, and elsewhere in the developing world, the question of economic freedom always trumps that of political freedom and rightly so. Because of its steady economic progress, China has lifted millions of people out of poverty, given them the right to own and run businesses, and enjoy a better quality of life. Many believe this would not have been possible without CCP’s singular vision of the future, and a commitment to delivering it.
   

I want to close this blog post with an excerpt from the book on the East’s perception of the West, who have constantly used propaganda to alter the image of China. For the East, the West is “…an army that fights but does not want to leave too many bodies on the battlefield; a bankrupt financial system, which pays for the war by getting into debt with China and other Asian nations; an imbalance between rich and poor that impoverishes the nations; an oligarchic democracy run by a privileged elite that thinks only of its own interests; and a propaganda machine that alters the perception of reality.”

It is now the West’s turn to counter this perception.

 

Econ principles explained in layman's terms

It's Always Sunny in the U.S. Economy (by the cast of It's Always Sunny in Philidelphia)

Watch this hilarious video to learn the basic principles of Econ. You will be more econ savvy for watching it. My favourite parts were about risk arbitrage!

Oil Economies and Dutch Disease - Is Abu Dhabi Handling it Right?

Abu Dhabi runs on oil revenue. The Emirate owns 8 percent of the world’s oil reserves which are approx. 98 billion barrels - and at the current drilling rate of 2.7 mbd, the reserves will last over 90 years. The economy is worth USD. 270 billion (AED 1 trillion, almost!) where approximately 58 percent of this money comes from the oil and gas sector. Little has been achieved in terms of diversifying away from oil and gas and diversification has largely occurred in sectors closely related to oil and gas, such as petrochemicals. The second largest contributor to GDP is the construction sector, which accounted for 10 percent of GDP in 2011, followed by the finance and real estate sectors, which made up approximately 8.5 percent of the GDP. These numbers paint a bleak picture for a state that wants to transition into a knowledge economy, diversifying away from oil and gas, by 2030.

This dependence on oil exposes Abu Dhabi to Dutch Disease. Dutch Disease is what happens when huge amounts of foreign currency (from oil reserves) flow into the economy and cause the local currency to appreciate, making other non-oil sectors less price competitive on the export market. It also allows cheap imports to enter the local market which negatively impact the industrialization of non-oil sectors as production moves to lower cost locations. So in a nutshell, oil rich countries are cursed in that they can never really diversify away from oil and gas!

However, to mitigate Dutch Disease, countries use a nominal exchange rate peg. In UAE, the dirham is pegged to the dollar at a fixed exchange rate. This is the case across the small oil-exporting states of the GCC, except Kuwait that uses a basket of currencies. A peg is used in order to contain an overvaluation of the local currency when oil money floods into the economy. However, the dollar peg is not without its drawbacks. When the price of oil rises, this creates or increases inflation in the local economy as wages and property prices go up (because the adjustment to the real exchange rate comes through adjustments in prices). A fall in oil prices causes deflation in the oil producing economies. Furthermore, the peg causes macroeconomic policies to be highly procyclical as the government’s spending decisions are dictated by oil prices; i.e. when the price of oil rises, government revenue increases, spending increases, inflation increases and interest rates fall, and the opposite happens with oil price falls.

A better defense against Dutch disease is adopting a conservative fiscal policy instead of a peg to control currency overvaluations. This is what Norway does, as well as what Abu Dhabi is doing right. Norway spends part of its oil money to build production sectors and invests the rest of it abroad through its ‘Pension Fund’ – the largest sovereign wealth fund in the world. Abu Dhabi Investment Authority, the second largest sovereign wealth fund has also invested heavily in assets abroad.

Abu Dhabi has also done several other things right. They have taken concrete steps to build capital in non-oil sectors; increased investments in social and physical infrastructure – with a conscious effort to overhaul the education system and encourage research and development in new sectors. The standard of living is pretty high with GDP per capita being among the highest in the world at above USD. 100,000; the physical infrastructure is consistently rated among the best in the world.  

See: Peterson Institute for International Economics, “The Case for Flexible Exchange Rates in Oil Exporting Economies”; Booz & Co, “Economic Diversification: The Road to Sustainable Development”; Economic Research Forum’s Working Paper Series, “Has the UAE escaped the Oil Curse?”

Congo Now

Haha! Loved this poster of Rosie the Riveter - totally apt!

Congo – an economy of blood minerals

I just finished reading Radio Congo by Ben Rawlence which piqued my interest in the Democratic Republic of Congo.  You don’t hear much about the country unless you actively seek out news and information about it.  The mainstream media almost never reports on it, even though the country has been through the most violent wars and grotesque human rights violations of modern time. So sadly, while most of us probably remember the Rwandan genocide of 1994, we are largely oblivious of the wars it triggered in neighboring Congo in 1996; the Second Congo War of 1998, also known as the Great African War because of the large scale involvement of African countries; and the violent outbreaks of conflict that continue to plague the country to this day.

There are political reasons, other than just a mere lack of interest, that this war is so underreported – the top being the illegal and unethical exploitation of Congo’s mineral resources, a business that is worth millions, if not billions, of dollars a day!   

Congo’s mineral wealth makes it the richest patch on earth.  It holds 80 percent of the world’s coltan reserves – which is used to produce high-end electronic goods and so will not run out of demand anytime soon; more than 60 percent of the world’s cobalt; and is the world’s largest supplier of high-grade copper. Other than that, gold, tin, zinc, diamonds are among the minerals mined there. Although war may have started because of ethnic antagonism, it has been perpetuated due to the mineral wealth of Congo, making the country a victim of the resource curse.

This is how the war economy is working.  The corrupt government headed by Kabila grants concessions to multinational firms to mine minerals in return for cuts and support against opposition groups in the country. Cuts make their way to the private coffers of the government. In areas where the government does not have a stronghold, these corporations are able to assert authority and exploit minerals by making alliances with rebel and militia groups, who use the small profits made in the partnership to buy weapons to threaten the local population and maintain their control.  The result of this is that around 80 percent of Congo’s mineral wealth is being smuggled out of the country to neighbouring countries, where it is then transported to Europe and the west.

So it is clear who the winners are in this conflict – and this is not to say that the Congolese government is without blame.  They have sold the future of their country very cheap. On the other hand, despite all the riches and resources their country holds, the people of Congo have not benefitted in the least. Per capita income is approximately 200 dollars, which is among the lowest in the world. Education and healthcare is almost non-existent. They only make cheap labour for the multinationals and warlords, often working for no wages, only the promise of food and shelter.

Backgroud

The modern conflict started with the end of the war in Rwanda when 1.2 million Hutu refugees and militia fled to Congo in fear of the newly instated Tutsi government. Mobuto, then president of Congo used the Hutus in his own ethnic war against the local Tutsi groups. Rwanda and Uganda, backed by the U.S., joined in to fight the aggression against Tutsis, arming guerilla and rebel groups against Mobuto.  Mobuto was overthrown and replaced by Laurent Kabila. Kabila didn’t want to continue serving the economic interests of Rwanda and Uganda and demanded the foreign forces to leave. Seeing their economic interests at risk, Rwanda and Uganda attacked the government in 1998 using local rebels and militia. Other African countries joined in to support Kabila, in what would become the Great War of Africa.  Although the war ended in 2002, it was impossible for the government and international organizations to disband the rebel groups that spread throughout eastern Congo. Just recently, fighting has broken out again between a local militia group M23, said to be backed by Rwanda and Uganda, and the Congolese army.  There is no telling how many more lives this renewed conflict will claim.